Topic: You're President of the USA...What would you do in this situation?

[Red Spar]

Scenario:

You are president of the United States, present day.

Your chief energy and military advisers call for an emergency meeting of grave importance.

In this meeting they spell out severe shortages of oil in the next 10 yrs. They state these points specifically:

- The world oil production will peak by 2008. After which time, short of a major technological breakthrough, the world?s consumption of oil will continue to rise over a fixed production amount. In simple terms, more people will be competing over a set amount of oil.

- China will double its oil use in the next 5 yrs. As of this year alone China has increased oil imports by 30%. China?s economy is booming in both the industrial and consumer sectors. China?s 1.2 billion citizens want to have the standard of living that Americans do and are making great strives toward this goal. By 2020 at present rates, China could match or surpass the United States economically and technologically. The rest of the world is also increasing oil use at steady rates which just compounds the problem.

- Use of alternative fuels/energy will have little impact. Hydrogen/Fuel cells use for transportation still has another 5-10 yrs to technologically mature. We estimate to completely change over to a hydrogen economy will take 15-20yrs with significant financial investment to replace the massive fossil fuel infrastructure of our country. Nuclear power is politically unpopular as well as major problems with nuclear waste have yet to be solved. Nuclear/Fusion alternatives still don?t solve transportation issues. Prospects in over-unity or zero-point energy have yet to pan out and still present the infrastructure dilemma if a breakthrough is found in the near term.

- Oil use in industrial/consumer products is increasing steadily. Petroleum products are chiefly used in plastic production which is also increasing steadily worldwide.

- If gasoline and diesel prices rise beyond $3.50 per gallon, runaway inflation of food and consumer goods will occur. Transportation costs to the trucking and aircraft industry will cost prices of all goods to soar. We foresee a major recession if not complete depression of the United States economy. Fuel prices will also have a major economic impact of US military operations across the world.

- Overseas investment in the US bond market will collapse if other countries see the US become economically instable. Without support from the bond market we will have no way to keep afloat against the deficit.




Mr. President, it is our recommendation that one of the 3 following actions be taken within the next 5 yrs or we face a major economic collapse:




1) Seize military control over the Middle Eastern oil reserves primarily. Possibly take Ukrainian oil fields as a secondary option, although this will incur much higher military risk. We should be able to justify these actions under the pretense of terrorism as a cover story. In sustained military campaign seizing the world?s oil reserves, it will not be possible to justify these actions covertly. A draft will have to be enabled to cope with the demand of such a large military operation. Repercussions of such actions will be huge on the economy and the democracy as a whole. NSA computer model scenarios suggest in later stages of this campaign, martial law on US citizens may be a required option. Other major risks of this option are the possible military response of China, Russian Federation and European Union. Intel suggests that China may be planning for this option itself to secure its economic and military growth. NSA foresees a 40% chance of China seizing a larger portion of worlds oil fields for itself no matter what option we take. We see at least a 50% of going to war with China in the next 20 yrs. It should be noted this scenario only buys the US some time. Controlling the world?s oil reserves will grant us only another 10-15yrs of steady economic growth, at which time we must have another fuel/energy system in place or face a complete economic collapse.



2) A crash program in alternative energy sources and/or hydrogen fuels. Only at massive spending levels can we replace our existing petroleum infrastructure within a minimum of 15 yrs. Major economic decline in the US will occur during the overlap of this program in the next 5-10yrs and a possible 20 yrs or more before the economy will stabilize. It is doubtful most US citizens will tolerate a major reduction in their standard of living for the next 20 yrs. NSA social predictive simulations foresee possible major rioting, civil unrest, government collapse or even civil war in worse case scenarios. It must also be noted, other countries might become opportunistic against the US if we suffer a major economic and military decline.



3) Do nothing. Plan the world economic collapse as inevitable and plan a exit strategy now. Consolidate power and control for an end time Mad Max type scenario. Employ a massive crash program for bunkers and underground control centers for control of the country and world in a post-collapse. Possible release of genetically engineered pathogens to reduce the worlds population to a manageable number to accommodate the worlds resources and our control.





OK the facts are laid out to you? What would YOU do? State why. Do you have another option (go into detail) What do you think our government would/is doing?

Now I just wrote this as a thought experiment?. It might or might not have a major basis in fact.  

[TalonClaw]

It's amazing what we can do when we have too.  I say crash program in alternatives.  We have been pussy footing around for decades because gas has been abundant and cheap.  Now its time to wake up and smell the coffee.

Possible military response of China, Russian Federation and European Union?  I think you WOULD see a response if we try to take it all for ourselves.

Seizing the middle east will only delay the inevitable and would, most likely, trigger a world war.
 

[Sethan]

I agree with Talonclaw.  Option 1 would cause the next World War.

That leaves Option 2.

I would make contingency plans for Option 1 if Option 2 looked to be stalled beyond the drop dead date due to technical problems, and for Option 3 (in the event that someone else released the genetically engineered pathogens).

[SSCF Hooch]

Bomb China first, "it's the only way to be sure" (j/k)

One thing I do know is this, politicians like to stay in power and this would not allow them to do so. I suspect there is more going on than we think or are allowed know. Just what do you think would happen if the rest of the world thought we did not need them at all and being energy inpendent? That would be just as de-stablizing as the other idea.

Hooch

[Scott Allen Abfalter]

#2 and we should have already been doing it.

If we can put a man on the moon in ten years, we could develop cheap alternative fuel systems if we put our minds to it.  There are plenty of alternative fuel systems, the problem is making them cheaper than oil.   We need a national committment to do this, just as strongly as the one to the space race.

It would lead to greater economic stability (e.g. we are not tied to fluctuating oil prices) and greater security (e.g. we no longer would care what happened in the middle east, save to ensure our own safety and that of our allies).

#1 would be just downright foolish.  

#3 is the most likely to occur.



 

[J. Carney]

Not that I like some of these ideas, but here's my ideas. Implement all of these over a 10-15 year time period as rapidly as possible.

Hope for the items related to Option #2 to work.
Prepare for the eventuality of Option # 1.
Ensure survival of Federal Infrastructure in the event of Option 3.

Most Immediate Preperations-

1.) Convert  ALL  new naval construction over to nuclear power and hope that GE and Westinghouse are up to the task. Naval forces use up a double-digit figure of our oil imports.
     1a.) Prepare fesibility study for conversion of all major surface combatants and support ships to nuclear power.
     1b.) In preperation for possible confrontation with China/ Other Major Power (EU, resurgent Japan, Her Majesties Combined
            Forces) prepare fesibility study for modernization/nuclear conversion of strategically important Reserve Fleet vesssls
        [Iowa-class, Iwo Jima-class, Rodchester-class (if any remaining), Virginia-class (modernization), ect]
      1c.) Accellerate the F-22, Joint Strike Fighter, AH-66 programs and begin crash program for replacement of the F-14/Phienox           system.

2.) Immediately begin drilling near to the Alaskan Wilderness preserve so as to minimize difficulties of exploitation in emergency situations.
     2a.) Begin negotiations and planning with major US oil corperations for purposes of deviding the Alaskan wilderness preserve
            to simplify exploitation. By zoning specific areasfor each corperation, squabbels over resources will be minimized and      
            productive work expidited.
     2b.) Devise plans for seizure of South American produuction fields, by means economic or otherwise.

3.) Begin covert production (on military instalations and other Gov't owned property) of nuclear power facilities to ensure that essential Gov't functions may continue in event of necessary oil rationing, thereby opening a larger percentage of rationed oil for military/industrial use.
     3a.) Offer incentives to homeowners who use alternative energy sources in new construction (i.e. lower loan intrest rates,
            property tax subsidies, ect).
     3b.) Offer aid to any homeowner attempting to upgrade older houses to use alternative energy sources.    
     3c.) Offer Big 3 substantial incentives (primary bargining chip, new tarrifs on imported automobiles resembling similar laws in
            Japan and Europe) for rush development of alternative fuel cars and hybreds.
     3d.) Create loopholes in Alternative Fuel Source laws to allow continued production of diesel-powered heavy equipment and
            commercial trucks for a minimun of 20-30 years (you can't beat a diesel for power/weight ratios).

After lining out all those things, I would see to the development of new fuel and power sources by offering gov't research jobs (on the order of the Manhatten Project) to attempt to produce a fusion/zero-point/other source power breakthrough; to promote this, I would seek to increase financial aid for students seeking to enter any of the necessary theoretical or ractical fields related to this item. Also important would be inception of an orginization similar to the Work Korps of Nazi Germany, New Deal work projects, or the CCC to help lower unemployment (thereby strengthening the economy in the face of evential collapse) and establish a group of people trained in dicipline and teamwork- thus easing the transition to military service in the eventuallity of conscription being reinstated. Lastly, I would upsize the military by a small percentage (target 5%) each year for a minimum of 10 years or until conscription became necessary.

Ugly ideas, some of them, but that's an ugly situation you put forth.

[Scott Allen Abfalter]

Yeah, for that matter, my actions as President would get environmentalists heart attacks....
 

[SPQR Renegade001]

OK, in an emergency scenario, like you propose...

Option 2. A massive research project with the final goal of the US being energy self sufficient in 8-10 years, with a complete change over to hydrogen within 15-20 years.

I would fund the project (at least in part) by diverting large amounts of the military and other spending aimed at preserving our long term interests in the Middle East. If the project is successful, the ME will be irrelevant to US strategic interests (relatively speaking), if the project is a failure, it wont matter any way.
Additionally, financial incentive should be placed to encourage the use of more efficient autos or alternative fuel autos. As more alternatives become available and the deadline looms larger, a heavy federal gas tax should be ramped into place to further encourage transition.

Items for immediate review:

1. Maturity of hydrogen fuel cell technology for industrial, military, commercial, household and automotive use. This item is paramount. If an economically feasible fuel cell is not available for production within 5 years, this plan WILL fail.

2. Construction of new and massive nuclear power plants in remote regions of the US, for the purpose of hydrogen production.

3. Methods for national level distribution of hydrogen from producer to regional distributors.
National pipeline, rail, truck?
After primary transition, can the national petroleum pipeline system be re-tooled for hydrogen distribution, with remaining petroleum handled via rail?

4. Feasibility of using existing natural gas distribution system for distribution of hydrogen at the consumer level, including transition plans.

4a. Fall back plan for consumer distribution, in the event item 4 is not feasible.
If need be, we'll see the old "Standard Oil" trucks out in front of our house, pumping hydrogen to a high pressure storage tank until regional distribution is established.

4b. If consumer level hydrogen distribution is unmanageable, plans should be considered for "neighborhood" level distribution. Small power plants feeding very local electric grids, and traditional gas stations for automotive applications.

5. Transition plan for regional electric production to change to hydrogen production.
In some regions, less than 12% of produced power reaches customers due to line loss, and power plants typically operate either over rated capacity during peak hours, or idling during off hours. Re-claiming this lost production will greatly extend the utility of our existing power plants.

6. Military transition. Every possible military application should be changed from petroleum to either nuclear or hydrogen. Applications that cannot change from petroleum (ie. air power) should be optimized to require the minimum fuel expenditure for the result.

7. An electric high-speed national rail system should be completed as soon as reasonably possible as a replacement for passenger & cargo aviation.

8. Serious consideration must be given to a balance between the technological property of contributor to this project and the best interests of the nation. Developers should have significant financial incentive to create, but the final product must be economically viable to the masses. Additionally, it would be in the best interest of all nations to make new technology available to the world. What would China be willing to do if it feared that the lack of petroleum would put it at a significant disadvantage to the rest of the world. Wars have started over far smaller things?
 

[Dracho]

#4 - Check the patent office, and if there really are 50 MPG devices that have been bought by the oil companies and shelved, those patents are immediately revoked and made public domain.  

[Stormbringer]

Oh, there is much more than that though many such things are not even allowed a patent. peer review is a good idea but there are those who treat science dogma as a religion. That is in addition to any corporate or government conspiracies to supress "destabilizing" technology.

[Clark Kent]

I had a physics teacher that had an interesting idea, and I assume it would work, given his educational background.  In some states, M85 (methanol 85%, petroleum 15%) is offered as a fuel alternative for vehicles that can use it.  In other states, like here in Minnesota, they prefer E85 (ethanol).  Anyway, the suggestion was this: go for the M85, by cultivating plants, like cattails, in swampy areas, and allowing them to breakdown, thus, producing methane.  I don't know how easy it is to produce methanol from that, but at the very least you have methane, which would make a good alternative to many types of fossil fuels.
Also, expanding solar, wind and hydro electric power would be an incredible help.  Another thing to think about- massive expansion of the public transportation system in the US.  Here in minnesota, public transportation is next to non existant, with many ignorant morons trying to abolish it altogether.  Things like light trail, high speed rail, improved public bussing, mag rail, subways, l-trains, would allow us to concentrate much of the transportation to far fewer vehicles, thus conserving fossil fule usage.  Also, one thing I do appreciate about minneapolis is the skyway system it has.  You can get to most of the downtown area without ever stepping outside- a great bonus in the cold cold winter months.  While not necessary for comfort reasons in most states, it might help a great deal as far as pedestrain congestion goes in other, warmer states.  Increased bikeways may help as well.  Encouraging people to build and live within metropolitan areas (big problem in MN) would reduce the need for commuting.  
Also, gents, last I heard most of the "prime time" electricity we use is produced from power plants that are fossil fuel powered, since they can be fired up quickly for the surges in power demands.  More reason to keep those lights to a minimum in the evening at home.  The vast majority of power usage, though, comes from commercial use.  Options to make business more energy efficient will help the most.  
As someone alreadty said, this is something our society should have been working on over 30 years ago at a feverish pace, but instead we put it off till now, and probably even longer.  New cars cost alot of money, something John Q. Public can't afford right now.  John Q will put it off as long as possible not out of apathy or selfishness, but because his pocketbook is stressed far too thin as it is.  The government need to learn to cut cut unnecessary public programs, stop giving aid to nations that despise us, and do something about the unneccesary overspecialization happening in the econmy.  hate to break it to ya fellas, but college degrees, while intrinsically good, should not be jammed down our throats in order to get a job that pays crap and offers little.  
i would say that the majority of problems we have stem from the overdependance on capitolism, moral degredation throughout our society, and the "plot" to increase apathy amongst people.  If we were smart enough to keep ourselves in check, china would burn itself out trying to increase it's quality of life simply because of their population.

CK

P.S.  I like Latinas...
....And apparently Asian ladies as well...

[Stormbringer]

also there are vast deposits of methane ice just sitting on the ocean floor. They occasionally are disturbed and outgass causing cataclysmic disturbaces on the surface. These deposits exist in the bermuda triangle for example. It has been postulated by serious scientists that this accounts for at least some ship sinkings there and the principle was demonstrated in a huge wave tank on discovery channel. these deposits could be tapped with a little effort and a little technology alteration.

[Scott Allen Abfalter]

For some sci-fi cautions about what could happen if you messed up in freeing trapped glacial methane read Mother of Storms by John Barnes (http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/0812533453/qid=1084976274/sr=8-1/ref=sr_8_xs_ap_i1_xgl14/002-8321150-8105631?v=glance&s=books&n=507846)

I recall reading something about a plant opening up in the south who are able to produce usable oil from just about any biological trash (e.g. turkey carcases, etc) that they believe they can get producing in a competitive price range, but I can't recall the details of it.

Eventually we'll hit our pain tolerance and move away from oil.  It won't last forever, and we can see the horizon.  It will get increasingly expensive.  

There are kooks out there who will claim the end of civilization when the oil runs out, but in truth what will happen is that we'll just be forced to go to other alternatives.   Right now the price is not high enough to force us, it's only high enough to get us grumbling.  




 

[Red Spar]

Scenario:

You are president of the United States, present day.

Your chief energy and military advisers call for an emergency meeting of grave importance.

In this meeting they spell out severe shortages of oil in the next 10 yrs. They state these points specifically:

- The world oil production will peak by 2008. After which time, short of a major technological breakthrough, the world?s consumption of oil will continue to rise over a fixed production amount. In simple terms, more people will be competing over a set amount of oil.

- China will double its oil use in the next 5 yrs. As of this year alone China has increased oil imports by 30%. China?s economy is booming in both the industrial and consumer sectors. China?s 1.2 billion citizens want to have the standard of living that Americans do and are making great strives toward this goal. By 2020 at present rates, China could match or surpass the United States economically and technologically. The rest of the world is also increasing oil use at steady rates which just compounds the problem.

- Use of alternative fuels/energy will have little impact. Hydrogen/Fuel cells use for transportation still has another 5-10 yrs to technologically mature. We estimate to completely change over to a hydrogen economy will take 15-20yrs with significant financial investment to replace the massive fossil fuel infrastructure of our country. Nuclear power is politically unpopular as well as major problems with nuclear waste have yet to be solved. Nuclear/Fusion alternatives still don?t solve transportation issues. Prospects in over-unity or zero-point energy have yet to pan out and still present the infrastructure dilemma if a breakthrough is found in the near term.

- Oil use in industrial/consumer products is increasing steadily. Petroleum products are chiefly used in plastic production which is also increasing steadily worldwide.

- If gasoline and diesel prices rise beyond $3.50 per gallon, runaway inflation of food and consumer goods will occur. Transportation costs to the trucking and aircraft industry will cost prices of all goods to soar. We foresee a major recession if not complete depression of the United States economy. Fuel prices will also have a major economic impact of US military operations across the world.

- Overseas investment in the US bond market will collapse if other countries see the US become economically instable. Without support from the bond market we will have no way to keep afloat against the deficit.




Mr. President, it is our recommendation that one of the 3 following actions be taken within the next 5 yrs or we face a major economic collapse:




1) Seize military control over the Middle Eastern oil reserves primarily. Possibly take Ukrainian oil fields as a secondary option, although this will incur much higher military risk. We should be able to justify these actions under the pretense of terrorism as a cover story. In sustained military campaign seizing the world?s oil reserves, it will not be possible to justify these actions covertly. A draft will have to be enabled to cope with the demand of such a large military operation. Repercussions of such actions will be huge on the economy and the democracy as a whole. NSA computer model scenarios suggest in later stages of this campaign, martial law on US citizens may be a required option. Other major risks of this option are the possible military response of China, Russian Federation and European Union. Intel suggests that China may be planning for this option itself to secure its economic and military growth. NSA foresees a 40% chance of China seizing a larger portion of worlds oil fields for itself no matter what option we take. We see at least a 50% of going to war with China in the next 20 yrs. It should be noted this scenario only buys the US some time. Controlling the world?s oil reserves will grant us only another 10-15yrs of steady economic growth, at which time we must have another fuel/energy system in place or face a complete economic collapse.



2) A crash program in alternative energy sources and/or hydrogen fuels. Only at massive spending levels can we replace our existing petroleum infrastructure within a minimum of 15 yrs. Major economic decline in the US will occur during the overlap of this program in the next 5-10yrs and a possible 20 yrs or more before the economy will stabilize. It is doubtful most US citizens will tolerate a major reduction in their standard of living for the next 20 yrs. NSA social predictive simulations foresee possible major rioting, civil unrest, government collapse or even civil war in worse case scenarios. It must also be noted, other countries might become opportunistic against the US if we suffer a major economic and military decline.



3) Do nothing. Plan the world economic collapse as inevitable and plan a exit strategy now. Consolidate power and control for an end time Mad Max type scenario. Employ a massive crash program for bunkers and underground control centers for control of the country and world in a post-collapse. Possible release of genetically engineered pathogens to reduce the worlds population to a manageable number to accommodate the worlds resources and our control.





OK the facts are laid out to you? What would YOU do? State why. Do you have another option (go into detail) What do you think our government would/is doing?

Now I just wrote this as a thought experiment?. It might or might not have a major basis in fact.  

[TalonClaw]

It's amazing what we can do when we have too.  I say crash program in alternatives.  We have been pussy footing around for decades because gas has been abundant and cheap.  Now its time to wake up and smell the coffee.

Possible military response of China, Russian Federation and European Union?  I think you WOULD see a response if we try to take it all for ourselves.

Seizing the middle east will only delay the inevitable and would, most likely, trigger a world war.
 

[Sethan]

I agree with Talonclaw.  Option 1 would cause the next World War.

That leaves Option 2.

I would make contingency plans for Option 1 if Option 2 looked to be stalled beyond the drop dead date due to technical problems, and for Option 3 (in the event that someone else released the genetically engineered pathogens).

[SSCF Hooch]

Bomb China first, "it's the only way to be sure" (j/k)

One thing I do know is this, politicians like to stay in power and this would not allow them to do so. I suspect there is more going on than we think or are allowed know. Just what do you think would happen if the rest of the world thought we did not need them at all and being energy inpendent? That would be just as de-stablizing as the other idea.

Hooch

[Scott Allen Abfalter]

#2 and we should have already been doing it.

If we can put a man on the moon in ten years, we could develop cheap alternative fuel systems if we put our minds to it.  There are plenty of alternative fuel systems, the problem is making them cheaper than oil.   We need a national committment to do this, just as strongly as the one to the space race.

It would lead to greater economic stability (e.g. we are not tied to fluctuating oil prices) and greater security (e.g. we no longer would care what happened in the middle east, save to ensure our own safety and that of our allies).

#1 would be just downright foolish.  

#3 is the most likely to occur.



 

[J. Carney]

Not that I like some of these ideas, but here's my ideas. Implement all of these over a 10-15 year time period as rapidly as possible.

Hope for the items related to Option #2 to work.
Prepare for the eventuality of Option # 1.
Ensure survival of Federal Infrastructure in the event of Option 3.

Most Immediate Preperations-

1.) Convert  ALL  new naval construction over to nuclear power and hope that GE and Westinghouse are up to the task. Naval forces use up a double-digit figure of our oil imports.
     1a.) Prepare fesibility study for conversion of all major surface combatants and support ships to nuclear power.
     1b.) In preperation for possible confrontation with China/ Other Major Power (EU, resurgent Japan, Her Majesties Combined
            Forces) prepare fesibility study for modernization/nuclear conversion of strategically important Reserve Fleet vesssls
        [Iowa-class, Iwo Jima-class, Rodchester-class (if any remaining), Virginia-class (modernization), ect]
      1c.) Accellerate the F-22, Joint Strike Fighter, AH-66 programs and begin crash program for replacement of the F-14/Phienox           system.

2.) Immediately begin drilling near to the Alaskan Wilderness preserve so as to minimize difficulties of exploitation in emergency situations.
     2a.) Begin negotiations and planning with major US oil corperations for purposes of deviding the Alaskan wilderness preserve
            to simplify exploitation. By zoning specific areasfor each corperation, squabbels over resources will be minimized and      
            productive work expidited.
     2b.) Devise plans for seizure of South American produuction fields, by means economic or otherwise.

3.) Begin covert production (on military instalations and other Gov't owned property) of nuclear power facilities to ensure that essential Gov't functions may continue in event of necessary oil rationing, thereby opening a larger percentage of rationed oil for military/industrial use.
     3a.) Offer incentives to homeowners who use alternative energy sources in new construction (i.e. lower loan intrest rates,
            property tax subsidies, ect).
     3b.) Offer aid to any homeowner attempting to upgrade older houses to use alternative energy sources.    
     3c.) Offer Big 3 substantial incentives (primary bargining chip, new tarrifs on imported automobiles resembling similar laws in
            Japan and Europe) for rush development of alternative fuel cars and hybreds.
     3d.) Create loopholes in Alternative Fuel Source laws to allow continued production of diesel-powered heavy equipment and
            commercial trucks for a minimun of 20-30 years (you can't beat a diesel for power/weight ratios).

After lining out all those things, I would see to the development of new fuel and power sources by offering gov't research jobs (on the order of the Manhatten Project) to attempt to produce a fusion/zero-point/other source power breakthrough; to promote this, I would seek to increase financial aid for students seeking to enter any of the necessary theoretical or ractical fields related to this item. Also important would be inception of an orginization similar to the Work Korps of Nazi Germany, New Deal work projects, or the CCC to help lower unemployment (thereby strengthening the economy in the face of evential collapse) and establish a group of people trained in dicipline and teamwork- thus easing the transition to military service in the eventuallity of conscription being reinstated. Lastly, I would upsize the military by a small percentage (target 5%) each year for a minimum of 10 years or until conscription became necessary.

Ugly ideas, some of them, but that's an ugly situation you put forth.

[Scott Allen Abfalter]

Yeah, for that matter, my actions as President would get environmentalists heart attacks....