Topic: Interesting stuff about SpaceX Starship (hate the name)

[Nemesis]

The one manned flight of Starliner has now been classified as a CLASS A mishap, the same as the two lost shuttles. 

Apparently it should have been at the time but NASA was convinced not to as they wanted to protect the reputation of Starliner.  There are issues with Starliner where they don't know what the root causes are.  Without the root causes they can't be sure that any fix will actually work instead of making things worse. 

The odds of a manned flight before the end of the ISS seem very low.  Maybe cargo flights. 

[Nemesis]

Vulcan now Projected To Launch Thu • Feb 12th, 2026

Watched the flight it was "successful".  Again it had what appears to be an issue with one of the SRB rocket nozzles failing.  Not a good sign as this is the 2nd occurrence.  I believe this gives these SRBs a 25% failure rate with the nozzles and it can use up to six on one launch.  When the nozzle fails the effective thrust falls, it has been fortunate that the 2 failures were on missions with small cargoes not pushing limits, which allowed the missions to succeed anyhow. 

Seems they went on the low bidder for the SRBs to keep launch costs down.  This is not the same supplier of SRBs for prior ULA rockets.

Seems Amazons LEO has contracted with SpaceX for another 10 Falcon 9 launches.  Whether this is connected with the Vulcan issues above or with the generally slow pace of launches by anyone not SpaceX is unclear. 

[Nemesis]

Looks like Artemis 2 has been delayed to Wed • Apr 1st, 2026  6:24 PM - 8:24 PM EDT due to a helium leak in the "interim cryogenic propulsion stage" that carries the Orion capsule from orbit to the moon and back to LEO.

The interim cryogenic propulsion stage is built by ULA. 

Given the history I expect delays.  They apparently have something like 16 backup dates allocated which seems to be a lack of confidence in their ability to launch. 

Edit 1:  I've posted elsewhere about this so I thought I should add it here.  With the inability of SLS to launch on time comes a MAJOR issue for Artemis III.  Before Artemis III launches the HLS is supposed to already be in lunar orbit waiting for them.  It can't loiter out there indefinitely.  So if Artemis III has long enough delays the HLS will "expire" and not be able to fulfill the mission requiring ANOTHER HLS to be sent before Artemis III can launch.  With another possible round of Artemis III delays potentially allowing HLS to expire again.  This is a MAJOR defect in the whole Artemis program if the SLS can't launch reliably in a particular time frame. 

[Nemesis]

The Artemis program is now changing. 

Artemis II is going ahead as planned but I don't believe the April 1st date will happen.

Artemis III will NOT be a lunar landing but an orbital rendezvous with a lander (in LEO) maybe HLS maybe Blue Moon OR maybe BOTH. 

They plan to go from the 1 launch every 3 years cadence to every 10 months (I'm unclear how they plan to do that) so Artemis IV would likely be 2028 (if they can pull off the schedule change) and be the 1st landing. 

This will be a massive cost increase as I see it and I doubt it will happen at the claimed rate.  Wouldn't surprise me if it was cancelled due to cost though I do expect Artemis II and MAYBE Artemis III to fly at some point. 

Edit 1:  Apparently Artemis II has been moved back to the assembly building.  This greatly enhances the chance of another delay.  IMO of course.

[Nemesis]

Starship Ship 39 has begun its prelaunch testing using a new test stand.  Purging on the new launch pad may indicate preparation for a static fire of Booster 19.

Looks like they may also renumber starting with these 2. 

No actual dates for launching of Starship, New Glenn or Vulcan and Artemis is off the stand for repairs to the ICPS that propels Orion to lunar orbit and back.  This makes it unlikely any of the first 3 will launch in March or Artemis in April. 

Starship is the most likely for 2 reasons 1/ it has the stages beginning testing 2/ they often with starship get their launch permit about 2 weeks from launch so they have a somewhat greater chance of doing so in March or the 1st half of April.

Edit: Starship now delayed to April.  I expect the others to be delayed as well.

It appears they will test Booster 19 first with 10 engines to see how the booster and new launch pad interact.  Later static fires with more engines. 

Interestingly a later Starship has been seen with what appears to be white heat tiles. 

Interesting times.