I'm prone to be extremely critical of Musk, but I suppose "eventually" is key to that claim. Saturn's LEO payload for the Apollo lunar missions was 140 tons for CM, LEM and fuel fifty years ago, so 200 tons seems doable.... eventually.
I'm going through the thread reading and seeing where I was right and more importantly wrong about things.
This "mass to orbit" by Apollo isn't what it appears. I looked into it because of people complaining how little mass SLS manages even though it is more powerful.
Ask yourself this. If the Apollo stack could take 140 tons to orbit why was Skylab only about 77 tons? The 1st to 3rd stage boosters were essentially the same. So why was Skylab so small?
The 140 tons to orbit by Apollo included the 3rd stage booster. Skylab just included just Skylab even though the booster did get to orbit too.
SLS, the 2nd stage gets to orbit and like the Apollo 3rd stage does launch the elements going to Lunar orbit on their way but isn't counted in the mass to orbit of SLS.
The difference between MASS to orbit and PAYLOAD to orbit. The booster mass makes orbit but is NOT payload.