Topic: Interesting stuff about SpaceX Starship (hate the name)

[Nemesis]

New Glenn has a date:

Projected To Launch Mon • Sep 29th, 2025

This specific launch was scheduled over a year ago (maybe more).  I wouldn't bet on it launching on time or even this year given its history.

[Nemesis]

IFT 10 revised to:  Sun • Aug 24th, 2025 7:30 PM - 8:30 PM EDT

Revised Mon • Aug 25th, 2025 7:30 PM - 8:30 PM EDT

Ground control issues.  No details.  Guessing something connected with changing to static fire the 2nd stage and then changing it back.  Maybe needed more purging.
Update:  They had a methane leak on the ground systems and replaced a hose over night.
Weather too bad for the launch. 

Revised Tue • Aug 26th, 2025  7:30 PM - 8:30 PM EDT

[Nemesis]

IFT 10 Success.  There was a explosion in the engine bay which didn't stop the landing.  The rear flaps both had burn throughs but continued to operate.  Simulated starlinks were deployed though one appeared to hit the door (or door frame).  The booster also did its simulated landing.

[Nemesis]

IFT 11 currently set for Launch December, 2025

I'm guessing that is just a place holder and will be brought forward unless 1/ they are anticipating regulatory issues (most likely if they are planning orbital and bringing it down in the Gulf of Mexico) 2/ They aren't planning to use their remaining block 2 craft and will go with block 3 requiring them to finish the 2nd launch mount and fully validate it. 

Interesting whichever path they follow.

[Nemesis]

IFT 11 is going to reuse booster 15 with Starship 38.


Falcon 9 has had the 30th flight for one booster.  They have also now launched and landed Falcon 9s over 500 times. 

[Nemesis]

New Glenn has a date:

Projected To Launch Mon • Sep 29th, 2025

This specific launch was scheduled over a year ago (maybe more).  I wouldn't bet on it launching on time or even this year given its history.

Delayed to December, based on past such delays I wouldn't expect it to launch this year.

[Nemesis]

IFT 11 currently set for Launch December, 2025

I'm guessing that is just a place holder and will be brought forward unless 1/ they are anticipating regulatory issues (most likely if they are planning orbital and bringing it down in the Gulf of Mexico) 2/ They aren't planning to use their remaining block 2 craft and will go with block 3 requiring them to finish the 2nd launch mount and fully validate it. 

Interesting whichever path they follow.

They have done the booster 15 (flown previously) static fire.  Starship 38 static fire still to be done.  Expectation now is October (barring the unforeseen).  I don't expect them to do a catch on booster 15 but I hope they do. 

Block 3 launches for IFT 12 (suborbital) and IFT 13 hopefully a return to Starbase (and maybe a catch) for Starship won't happen till next year as they need to finish pad B.  Refurbishing pad A for Block 3 launches will presumably begin soon after IFT 12 is completed.  Soon being maybe within weeks (or given the SpaceX pace maybe days).

EDIT
Starship 38 has had its static fire.  Typically if nothing went wrong this would mean a launch within 2 weeks.  Hopefully this is typical.

EDIT 2
IFT 11 Mon • Oct 6th, 2025  7:15 PM - 8:15 PM EDT

As expected that Dec date has been brought forward (the date of New Glenn has not also as expected) right on target.

EDIT 3
Mon • Oct 13th, 2025  7:15 PM - 8:15 PM EDT

EDIT 4

Success.

[Nemesis]

B.O. has moved the New Glenn EscaPADE launch up to October so maybe they will prove me wrong and launch again this year. 

Edit

Backed out to November now. 

Edit 2

Flight 2 - Sun • Nov 9th, 2025

The static fire has occurred so MAYBE it will happen on the current schedule.

Edit 3

Fri • Nov 7th, 2025  2:51 PM - 4:50 PM EST

Edit  Another change

Sun • Nov 9th, 2025  2:45 PM - 4:44 PM EST

[Nemesis]

B.O. has moved the New Glenn EscaPADE launch up to October so maybe they will prove me wrong and launch again this year. 

Edit

Backed out to November now. 

Edit 2

Flight 2 - Sun • Nov 9th, 2025

The static fire has occurred so MAYBE it will happen on the current schedule.

Edit 3

Fri • Nov 7th, 2025  2:51 PM - 4:50 PM EST

Edit  Another change

Sun • Nov 9th, 2025  2:45 PM - 4:44 PM EST

Finally flew.  Seems to have been a 100% success.  Now projecting a January 3rd flight.  It is to carry the Blue Moon Pathfinder which is an undersized prototype of their proposed manned lander for Artemis. 

[Nemesis]

Blue Origin now has Project Jarvis.  Makes me wonder if he sees himself as a real life Tony Stark (Stark = Iron Man and Jarvis is his AI that he uses for designing and operating his armour).  He must REALLY hate that people call Musk the real life Tony Stark.

So what IS Bezos Jarvis? It is a attempt to build a fully reusable 2nd stage to the New Glenn rocket, I don't know if they are eliminating the planned fairings.  Like Starship it is stainless steel.  They have a test tank very like the early Starship tanks.  How do you think Cape Canaveral will appreciate Bezos blowing up test tanks on their property?  SpaceX blew up theirs on their own test site not NASA grounds.  New Glenn is about 75 feet shorter than Starship and only 7 meters diameter vs 9 meters for Starship. 

New Glenn is planned to fly with the expendable 2nd stage until "the mid 2020s" when Jarvis will replace it.  There are also comments that without a reusable 2nd they won't be able to launch at a profit but will lose money every launch.  It also seems to reduce the planned cargo from 50 tons to 38 tons.  This puts it squarely in the F9/FH market and far less than the Starship at 150 tons. 

Functionally this is Bezos endorsing Starship.

Project Jarvis is still lacking in any further information.

[Nemesis]

Booster 18 had an "incident" during a pressure test.  The LOX tank burst up one side by a chime.  It has been suggested this is another COPV failure where one at the bottom of the chime burst and that burst the one above and so on like domino's falling.  This is not an official speculation.  It could delay the IFT 12 mission (again not official) depending on the cause and how long it will take Booster 19 to be prepped instead.

BO claims that the next launch will include improved thrust from both stages.  Appears to be updated engines so not likely using the current engines.  They are also (at some point) planning to recover and reuse fairings.

BO also claims they will upgrade (at an unstated future time) New Glenn to 9 engines on the first stage (from 7) and 4 on the 2nd stage (from 2) combined with the upgraded thrust this would increase cargo to 70 tons.  I'm not going to hold my breath considering how slow they are.  It will also have enlarged fairings

Part of these upgrades uses the SpaceX method of sub cooling propellant to increase the propellant load allowing more payload to be carried (pioneered on Falcon 9)

[Nemesis]

Starliner - NASA no longer has any astronauts scheduled to fly on Starliner.  Whether this will change is unknown.

The enlarged New Glenn is supposedly going to be launched in 2027.  Obviously I have serious doubts.

[Nemesis]

Vulcan and Ariane 6 both flew last night.  Apparently successful in both.

The other launch for 2025 has now slipped to March 2026.  Why is the question.

[Nemesis]

The Chinese launched a reusable rocket.  It put its payload in orbit but failed the landing.  Seems to have been an engine issue.   Not a lot of details of course.

The Chinese also had their capsule at their station take damage (space debris strike) to a window that make it doubtful that the crew would survive a landing.  They launched the next crew up, the crew that was already there returned in the capsule that had just arrived.  A new capsule (which carried extra cargo due to no passengers) has since arrived at the station to be their return vehicle.

The Russians had an "incident" at the launch facility (the only one) that they use for sending Soyuz to the ISS.  The launch was successful BUT the launch systems took significant damage.  They claim they have everything on hand to fix it but can they be trusted.

A Russian astronaut prepping to launch on Dragon was caught taking documents and photos of documents about the Merlin engines.  He of course claims no wrong doing and was expelled.

[Nemesis]

News stories about SpaceX doing an IPO in 2026 seem to be based on facts. 

[Nemesis]

Vulcan and Ariane 6 both flew last night.  Apparently successful in both.

The other launch for 2025 has now slipped to March 2026.  Why is the question.

This has moved back to "January". 

Vulcan, New Glenn and Starship.  Any time a launch is listed as just the month and it gets down to less than 2 months I don't take the date too seriously and all three of them are in that category. 

Vulcan I'm willing to give a week to set the date more firmly but if it doesn't happen quickly I'll consider it very unlikely.

New Glenn I consider unlikely due to the YEARS of false launch dates before the first actual launch and all the delays on the 2nd one. 

Starship I'd be surprised if it launches before late February and consider March more likely due to the issue with the last booster test that burst (not due to a engine test) destroying the booster.  Another has been built but has no engines should begin testing soon.

[Nemesis]

Interesting sudden changes:

Vulcan - Now Mon • Feb 2nd, 2026

New Glenn - No launches showing up at all.  Probably that will change within a few days but they did have multiple launches on the list now all are gone.

Starship - Proving me right    March, 2026

Now with Starship they have to finish their new pad for launching which seems to be getting close.  They are also renovating the original pad and are digging out under the old deluge plate rapidly as well as around it for the new style pad.  Elements of the tower are also being changed including adding more cable to the lift enhancing its mass limits and modifying the chopsticks. 

Their new construction bay is proceeding rapidly which when operating will increase their assembly rate.  I expect that once launches of the new block 3 ships begin (barring major surprises) that the launch rate will pick up as the year progresses. 

Amazon LEO (formerly Project Kuiper) is supposed to have about 1600 satellites up by the end of July or they will be in violation of their license yet they only have ~180 in orbit and I'm only seeing 1 Vulcan launch scheduled to put more in orbit.  No BO or Falcon.  My source doesn't track Ariane 6 but they don't have much of a launch cadence so I wouldn't expect more than 2 by July (and that would be VERY surprising) and possibly none.

It is possible that Amazon has negotiated an extension but I haven't heard about it if they have. 

EDIT: I've read but cannot validate that New Glenn can't carry Amazon Leo satellites till they have had 4 successful launches.  Whether the terms would make the first launch "successful" when it's cargo was minimal and wasn't deployed (on purpose) is unclear and also whether the booster exploding in the upper atmosphere in connection with a failed relight would disqualify it from counting is also unclear.  So it doesn't look like they could get more than 1 (optimistically) launch of Leo satellites by the end of July without rapid re-flights of their one operational booster which I would classify as HIGHLY doubtful given their history for being slow.