Interesting sudden changes:
Vulcan - Now Mon • Feb 2nd, 2026
New Glenn - No launches showing up at all. Probably that will change within a few days but they did have multiple launches on the list now all are gone.
Starship - Proving me right
Flight 12 March, 2026
EDIT: Starship has a 2nd launch on the schedule (1st time I recall that) Flight 13 June, 2026
Now with Starship they have to finish their new pad for launching which seems to be getting close. They are also renovating the original pad and are digging out under the old deluge plate rapidly as well as around it for the new style pad. Elements of the tower are also being changed including adding more cable to the lift enhancing its mass limits and modifying the chopsticks.
Their new construction bay is proceeding rapidly which when operating will increase their assembly rate. I expect that once launches of the new block 3 ships begin (barring major surprises) that the launch rate will pick up as the year progresses.
Amazon LEO (formerly Project Kuiper) is supposed to have about 1600 satellites up by the end of July or they will be in violation of their license yet they only have ~180 in orbit and I'm only seeing 1 Vulcan launch scheduled to put more in orbit. No BO or Falcon. My source doesn't track Ariane 6 but they don't have much of a launch cadence so I wouldn't expect more than 2 by July (and that would be VERY surprising) and possibly none.
It is possible that Amazon has negotiated an extension but I haven't heard about it if they have.
EDIT: I've read but cannot validate that New Glenn can't carry Amazon Leo satellites till they have had 4 successful launches. Whether the terms would make the first launch "successful" when it's cargo was minimal and wasn't deployed (on purpose) is unclear and also whether the booster exploding in the upper atmosphere in connection with a failed relight would disqualify it from counting is also unclear. So it doesn't look like they could get more than 1 (optimistically) launch of Leo satellites by the end of July without rapid re-flights of their one operational booster which I would classify as HIGHLY doubtful given their history for being slow.
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